基于灰色理论的吴起县适宜退耕还林面积的预测  

Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Wuqi County Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：吴坚[1] 毕华兴[1] 刘广亮[2] 陈攀攀[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]吴起县退耕还林工程管理办公室,陕西吴起717600

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2009年第1期108-110,共3页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划“西北黄土残塬沟壑区水土流失综合调控原理与治理范式”(2007CB407207)

摘　　要：吴起县是我国退耕还林草政策推行重点县,退耕比例高达38.3%。如何在保证粮食产量安全的前提下继续推行退耕还林草政策是人们广泛关注的焦点。根据1999—2005年吴起县统计年鉴资料,分析了退耕还林草对当地粮食产量和粮食需求量关系影响,认为可以继续推行退耕还林草工程。假定未来几年条件相同的情况下,运用灰色理论的GM(1,1)预测模型,建立了粮食总产、人口、粮食单产和人均粮食消费的预测模型。利用这些预测模型预测了2008—2012年的各年适宜的退耕还林面积,旨在为吴起县实施退耕还林草工程提供科学参考。Wuqi County is a major county to implement the grain for forest and grass(GFG) project in China,with the percentage of the GFG area reaching as much as 38.3%.So,how to sufficiently guarantee the amount of grain production and continue practicing the GFG is extensively concerned by people.The study is based on the statistical data of Wuqi County from 1999 to 2005.The GFG project affects the relationship between the volume of grain output and demands.It is believed that the GFG project can keep on performing....

关 键 词：吴起县 退耕还林草 灰色模型 

分 类 号：S721[农业科学—林木遗传育种]