层次分解法在南水北调东线工程风险因子识别中的运用  

Application of hierarchic decomposition approach to identification of risk factors for East Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

作　　者：姜蓓蕾[1] 刘恒[1] 耿雷华[1] 李爱花[1] 徐澎波[1] 陈炼钢[1] 黄昌硕[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2009年第3期65-67,73,共4页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金："十一五"科技支撑课题"南水北调运行风险管理关键技术研究"(2006BAB04A09)资助

摘　　要：将南水北调东线工程分解成提水、输水和蓄水三大系统,运用层次分解方法系统地分析识别了可能影响三大系统正常运行的工程风险因子。识别分析结果表明,影响提水系统的风险因子有系统功率和工程安全两大方面,输水河道风险和蓄水系统风险主要有3种破坏模式:漫堤失事、渗透失事和失稳失事,影响穿黄隧道工程的风险主要是隧道塌陷失事模式。正确识别风险因子可为进一步开展工程风险评估、制定风险预案及实现巨系统的风险管理奠定基础。The East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project consists of three systems: water pumping;water conveyance and water storage.The possible risk factors of the project those will impact the normal operation of the systems are systematically analyzed and identified with the hierarchic decomposition approach.The results show that the risk factors impacting the water pumping system are in the aspects of both the system power and the project safety,while the risks on the water conveyance channel and wa...

关 键 词：南水北调东线工程 层次分解 风险识别 风险因子 

分 类 号：TV68[水利工程—水利水电工程]