我国宏观经济内部失衡对国际收支失衡的影响--基于两缺口模型的实证研究  

Impact of internal imbalance of the Chinese macro-economy on international payment imbalance——An empirical study based on Two-gap Model

作　　者：张亚斌[1] 万建永[1] 易先平[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2008年第4期40-45,共6页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

摘　　要：文章通过运用钱纳里标准衡量我国消费、储蓄和投资现状,得出我国宏观经济内部失衡实际是储蓄率过高,消费需求不足,投资需求旺盛导致的储蓄、投资和消费、投资的内部经济结构性失衡。在运用宏观经济理论分析内部失衡对外部失衡影响的基础上,文章还以"两缺口模型"为基础,加以实证检验,得到了我国宏观经济内部失衡决定外部失衡,外部失衡不过是内部失衡外部表现这一结论。文章最后,对导致我国目前面临的内外失衡局面的问题加以总结,并针对问题提出了一系列调整消费、储蓄和投资的政策性建议。This paper focuses on the internal imbalance of the Chinese macro econcmy by using Ciannelli standards to measure the current situation of China's consumption,savings and investment.The result indicated that the imbalance was caused by high savings rate,insufficient consumer demand and excessive investment demand.We examined the impact of internal imbalance on external imbalance from a perspective of macroeconomics,and conducted some econometric tests based on Two-gap Model.The tests showed that the external imbalance was a manifestation of the internal imbalance.It is concluded that the insights into the impact may find useful applications in changing our consumption,savings and investment into a better place.

关 键 词：内部失衡 国际收支失衡 两缺口模型 钱纳里标准 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]