基于灰色理论的事故黑点改造效果分析  

Analyzing the Black-spots Effect Based on Gray Theory

作　　者：龚万明[1] 呙勇[2] 张航[3] 

机构地区：[1]湖北郧县公路管理局,湖北十堰442500 [2]深圳机场(集团)有限公司,广东深圳518128 [3]武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《西部交通科技》2008年第5期68-71,共4页Western China Communications Science & Technology

摘　　要：文章分析了汉宜高速公路黑点路段事故原因,提出黑点路段的具体整治措施,并结合汉宜高速公路改造后的事故特征,运用灰色预测模型,预测交通事故进一步的变化态势,结果表明:交通事故逐年减少,改造效果明显。To discovering the black-spots of road may carry corresponding strategies to reform it.But whether it is rationally and effectively reformed or not,it will need to observe the change of road safety indexes in quite a long time.This paper analyzes the cause of accident in black-spots of han-yi expressway,puts forward some concrete treating methods.In combination with accident characteristic after reformation,forecasting the traffic accident further trends based on accident gray forecast model.The result shows that the reformation effect is obvious as well with traffic accident had trend to decrease yearly.

关 键 词：灰色理论 汉宜高速 黑点 效果分析 

分 类 号：U491.5+4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]