Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm  

作　　者：XIE Yanqiong1, 2, 3, WEI Fengsi1, FENG Xueshang1 & ZHONG Dingkun1, 2 1. State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China 2. Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China 3. Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China 

出　　处：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》2006年第5期629-640,共12页中国科学（技术科学英文版）

基　　金：jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40536029,40336053 and 40374056);the International Collaboration Research Team Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

摘　　要：Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather ——“observing” and quantitative prediction ——“palpating”, and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of “observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of “palpating”, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, re- spectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision.Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather — “observing” and quantitative prediction — “palpating”, and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of “observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of “palpating”, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision.

关 键 词：SOLAR storm  INTERPLANETARY shock  INTERPLANETARY scintillation  TWO-STEP method  ISF method. 

分 类 号：P182.9[天文地球—天文学]