西部地区公路货运周转量可拓聚类预测  

Extension Classification Prediction on Road Freight Turnover in the Western Regions

作　　者：朱方海[1] 凌建明[1] 魏道新[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点试验室,上海200092 [2]交通部公路科学研究所,北京100088

出　　处：《西部交通科技》2006年第6期50-52,60,共4页Western China Communications Science & Technology

基　　金：2004年西部交通建设科技项目(交通基础设施对西部社会经济发展的影响评价)

摘　　要：文章以可拓聚类的原理和一般预测过程为依据,结合我国西部地区公路货运周转量预测的特点,在分析国外先进经验的基础上,完成对西部地区公路货运周转量的预测。基于GDP和进出口总额的公路货运周转量可拓聚类预测,以区间的形式表示。可以相对减少对单纯点的数值预测的局限性和误差,当给定一个未来环境因素时,可以判定出公路货运周转量变化的类型,从而预测未来公路货运周转量的变化范围,得到预测结果是可行的。Based on the theory and normal process of extension classification prediction,the article completed a forecast on the road freight turnover in Western Regions based on the feature of road freight turnover forecast and the advanced experience abroad.Being expressed as an interval type,the extension classification prediction method for road freight turn- over based on GDP and total amount of imports and exports (TIE) will minimize the limitation and errors of value forecast for simple points.With a future environ- mental factor,the forecast method can judge the variation type of road freight turnover,and thus foretell the variation scope of future freight turnover.It shows that the forecast result is feasible.

关 键 词：公路货运周转量 区间预测 物元模型 国内生产总值 进出口总额 

分 类 号：U492.313[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]