马尔科夫预测法在通讯市场中的应用  

Application of Markov Prediction in Communication Industry

作　　者：张梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院数学与信息科学学院,山东烟台264005

出　　处：《牡丹江教育学院学报》2006年第4期71-72,共2页Journal of Mudanjiang College of Education

摘　　要：马尔科夫预测法是一种适用于随机过程的科学有效的动态预测方法,这种方法对许多随机现象能有效地做出预测与决策,尤其是对于某些动态问题,应用此法进行预测的效果显著。本文利用马尔科夫链建立了预测模型,分析并预测了通信市场中各种通信手段的动态市场占有率问题,其预测的准确率比较高,这说明了此法的可行性和可靠性,并为通信运营商提供了必要的决策依据。Markov prediction is a scientific and effectual dynamic prediction method which is applicable to stochastic processes.The method can effectively predict many stochastic phenomena and make decision.Its effect is especially prominent to some dynamic problems.The article establishes a prediction model,analyses proportion of diversified communication instruments in communication industry.The result shows that it has a high accurary rate in prediction and it's feasible and credible.The prediction result also offers necessary basis of decision-making for communication operators.

关 键 词：马尔可夫预测 通信 决策 模型 

分 类 号：O21[理学—概率论与数理统计]