台风路径数值预报模式的并行化及路径预报误差分析  

OPTIMIZATION AND PARALLEL OF TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION MODEL IN NMC AND TRACK ERROR ANALYSES

作　　者：麻素红[1] 瞿安祥 张眙[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心 [2]北方计算中心,北京100091

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2004年第3期322-328,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家气象中心业务发展课题YF2 0 0 1A 0 5资助

摘　　要：国家气象中心台风路径数值预报模式经过串行优化及程序并行 ,成功地实现了在国产超级计算机神威上的并行运算 ,并可满足业务时效要求。基于并行程序及神威机计算平台的台风路径数值预报业务系统于 2 0 0 2年 6月 30日投入实时运行 ,其初估场与侧边界条件从T1 0 6L1 9模式产品升级为T2 1 3L31模式产品 (称为基于T2 1 3台风预报系统 ,原串行系统称为基于T1 0 6台风预报系统 )。通过对 2 0 0 2年夏秋季台风路径的检验 ,总体来看 ,基于T2 1 3台风预报系统 48h内的平均路径预报误差小于基于T1 0 6台风预报系统的路径预报误差。对西行及西北行登陆的台风 ,基于T1 0 6台风预报系统的 48h预报好于基于T2 1 3台风预报系统的预报。对于转向台风而言 ,转向后的预报 ,基于T2 1 3台风预报系统的预报要好于基于T1 0 6台风预报系统的预报 ,有效地减小了基于T1 0 6台风预报系统对转向台风路径预报的系统性误差The Model for Typhoon Track Prediction (MTTP) on Cray92 in National Meteorological Center (NMC) was optimized and paralleled through data paralleling and message passing on Shenwei (SW) super computer made in China and the running time could meet the requirement of operational running. The new typhoon track prediction system was set up based on this model and SW computer was put into real time running on 30 June 2002. The initial condition and lateral boundary were updated from T106L19 to T213L31. The track results show that the track forecasts from the new system are better than that from the old system (the system on Cray92) on the whole. But the performance is different for different types of tracks: The results from the SW system are better for the northeast recurving typhoons and worse for the west and northwest moving typhoons.

关 键 词：台风 路径 热带气旋 误差分析 数值预报 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]