CAPPS在太原市本地化过程中的改进和应用  

IMPROVEMENT AND APPLICATION OF CAPPS LOCALIZED IN TAIYUAN CITY

作　　者：苗爱梅[1] 李韬光[1] 张红雨[1] 何翰原[1] 骆丽楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西省气象台,太原030006

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2004年第3期329-335,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：太原市空气污染潜势及污染指数预报业务系统课题资助

摘　　要：该文针对CAPPS在太原市运行的误差问题 ,在分析其主要原因的基础上 ,变换地形背景场 ,依据不同季节、不同天气形势 ,在模式中增加对综合误差系数和扬尘系数的调节功能 ,进行多种数值模拟试验。结果表明 :在误差分析基础上确定的模拟试验方案 ,使主要污染物SO2 、NOX 和PM1 0 的预报值与监测值的相关系数分别提高到 0 .96、0 .91和 0 .89,最终使CAPPS成为预报准确率稳定在 90Based on the analysis of the main reasons that lead to the error problems appearing in the operation of the CAPPS Model System in Taiyuan City, the varying of the orographic background fields were discussed. According to different seasons and different synoptic situations, the accommodation function of complex error coefficient and raising dust coefficient is added to this model system and various numerical simulation experiments are made. The result shows that through the simulation experiment schemes based on error analysis, the correlation coefficients of the prediction and the observation of main pollutants: SO 2, NO x and PM 10 are increased to 0.96, 0.91 and 0.89. The forecast accuracy of the CAPPS Model System localized into an operation numerical model system in Taiyuan City can be reached to 90%.

关 键 词：空气污染指数 API 误差分析 业务化系统 

分 类 号：X831[环境科学与工程—环境工程]