过去2000a中国东部冬半年温度变幅与周期  

Amplitude and Rhythm of Winter Half-year Temperature Change in Eastern China for the Past 2000 Years

作　　者：葛全胜 郑景云 刘健 

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2007年第z1期26-30,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：This work was supported by the project from National Natural Science Foundation of China under grants No. 40331013 and 40571017.

摘　　要：The amplitude and rhythm of temperature changes at inter-decadal and inter-centennial timescale were studied, based on the winter-half year temperature change series reconstructed from historical phenological events in eastern China for the past 2000 years, together with the temperature change simulation from ECHO-G model for the past 1000 years, and the quasi-periods of temperature fluctuation were discussed by using wavelet analysis. The results indicate: 1) the maximal amplitude of winter half-year temperature change in eastern China at decadal and centennial scale, was above 2℃ and 0.5-1.0℃ respectively. The reconstructed result indicates that the amplitude of warming during the 20th century was identical with the maximum amplitude before the 20th century in eastern China, but the simulated result suggests that the amplitude of warming has exceeded the maximum amplitude. 2) The rhythms of temperature change at centennial to millennial scale in eastern China were about 100-year, 250-year, 400-year, 600-year and 1000-year. The 20th century, the 1st-3rd century and the 9th-13th century were warm peaks at inter-centennial scale as well as at millennial scale. It is implicated that the warming during the 20th century should be attributed to not only anthropogenic effect, but also natural climate variation.

关 键 词：WINTER half-year temperature change AMPLITUDE RHYTHM the PAST 2000 years EASTERN China 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]