20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析  

Progress in the Attribution of Climate Warming in China for the 20th Century

作　　者：周天军 赵宗慈 

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2007年第z1期82-86,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：This work was jointly supported by the International Partnership Creative Group entitled "The Climate System Model Development and Application Studies", and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40375029).

摘　　要：Progress in the attribution of climate warming in China for the 20th century is summarized. Three sets of climate model experiments including both coupled and uncoupled runs have been used in the attribution analyses. Comparison of climate model results with the observations proves that in the 20th century, especially in the recent half century, climate warming in China is closely related to the increasing of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, while sulfate aerosol should also have contributions. When both external forcing and natural forcing agents are prescribed, coupled climate models have better results in producing the observed variation of temperature in China. The role of oceanic forcing is also emphasized in the attribution analyses. The observed climate warming of China in the 1920s could not be reproduced in any set of climate model simulations.

关 键 词：20th CENTURY surface air temperature China ATTRIBUTION analysis CLIMATE WARMING 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]