对我国GDP增长率高估或低估判断的分析  

Analysis on Overestimated or Underestimated Growth Rate of GDP of China

作　　者：龚刚敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经学院财政与公共管理学院,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《财经论丛（浙江财经学院学报）》2004年第4期65-69,共5页

摘　　要：近十年来国内外机构与学者对我国GDP统计数据不断提出质疑,本文对不同质疑者与该领域众多学者的讨论背景及手段与方法存在的缺陷进行了分析,试图说明两个问题:一是国家的经济是由多种因素共同作用而成,单个经济指标对经济总量的解释力十分有限,不能因部分经济指标之间的不一致简单得出我国经济总量统计有误的结论;二是我国目前的统计技术与信息渠道与发达国家相比存在较大差距,提高统计质量是影响到我国经济能否持续稳定发展的迫切任务。The statistic data of China's GDP had been queried by many organizations and experts all over the world in recent years.This paper analyzes the background and defects of the arguments of different points of view,and tries to illustrate two issues:one is that a single economic index is not enough to explain GDP which is composed of many factors;the other is that there is great gap between developed countries and China in the techniques and sources of economic statistic data,and it's urgent to improve it.

关 键 词：国民经济核算 经济增长率 统计质量 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]