宁南山区马铃薯早疫病流行程度预测研究  

Studies on Epidemic Coefficient Forecasting of Alternaria solani in the Mountainous Areas of Southern Ningxia

作　　者：谢成君[1] 王颖[1] 刘普明[1] 穆迎丽[1] 杨东宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏西吉县农业技术推广服务中心,宁夏西吉756200

出　　处：《中国马铃薯》2010年第1期34-37,共4页Chinese Potato Journal

摘　　要：马铃薯早疫病是马铃薯生产上的一种主要病害,为探讨该病中长期预测模型,指导大面积防治,利用宁南山区18年马铃薯早疫病流行程度和西吉县气象资料,采用多因子综合分析法,对马铃薯早疫病流行程度进行预测。结果表明:经2年预报和18年回测,其历史拟合率达95.0%,精确率达97.0%。在病害盛发前做出预报,有利于指导大田的防控工作。Alternaria solani Sorauer was an important disease in potato production.In order to explore its medium and long term forecast model and guide its control on large scale,the epidemic coefficient of Alternaria solani Sorauer was forecasted based on meteorological data of Xiji County and the epidemic coefficient of Alternaria solani Sorauer within 18 years in the mountainous areas of southern Ningxia by multi-factor comprehensive analyses.The result showed that the history matching ratio and accuracy were 95.0...

关 键 词：早疫病 多因子综合分析 宁南山区 

分 类 号：S435.32[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]