Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes  

作　　者：WANG Li-feng(王丽凤) MA Li(马丽) David Vere-Jones CHEN Shi-jun(陈时军) 

机构地区：[1]Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington P.O. Box 600, New Zealand Earthquake Administration of Shandong Province, Ji''nan 250014, China

出　　处：《Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition)》2004年第2期177-189,共13页

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China (40074013, 40134010), Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (042002) and the project during the Tenth Five-year Plan.

摘　　要：Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.

关 键 词：stochastic AMR model parameter estimation maximum likelihood AIC criterion strong earthquake 

分 类 号：P315.6[天文地球—地震学]