北京地区细菌性痢疾医疗气象预报模式及流行风险水平评估  

The Basic Research of Medical Meteorology Forecast Model of Bacillary Dysentery and Its Risk Valuation in Beijing Area

作　　者：张姝丽[1] 孙培源[2] 张德山[1] 蒲永兰[2] 韦懿云[2] 赵娜[1] 宛公展[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京市专业气象台,北京100089 [2]北京市海淀区疾病预防控制中心,北京100086 [3]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300081

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2009年第6期673-677,共5页Climatic and Environmental Research

摘　　要：研究了北京市海淀区2004～2006年全年逐日细菌性痢疾发病率与地面气象要素的相关关系。结果发现,细菌性痢疾发病与水汽压(空气绝对湿度)高度相关,单相关系数平均可达0.85以上。在所有候选预报因子中,它的方差贡献可占80%。采用多元回归概率分级技术,建立了细菌性痢疾医疗气象预报及风险水平评估模式。该模式预报结果可为各级疾病预防控制中心指导广大城乡居民卫生防疫提供科学依据。The relationship between the grounded meteorological elements and the daily incidence of bacillary dysentery in Haidian District of Beijing from 2004 to 2006 has been studied.The result shows that the incidence of bacillary dysentery is highly related with the vapor pressure(absolute humlidity),and the simple correlation coefficient is over 0.85 averagely.Compared with all the selected elements,the contribution of variance can reach 80%.The forecast of bacillary dysentery and the mode of risk identification...

关 键 词：细菌性痢疾 疾病流行风险水平评估 医疗气象预报 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]