Short-range Climate Prediction Experiment of the Southern Oscillation Index Based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis  

基于奇异谱分析的南方涛动指数短期气候预测试验(英文)

作　　者：刘健文 董佩明 

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2001年第5期873-881,共9页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：This work was supported by the" National Key Project Studies on Short-Range Climate PredictionSystem in China" (96-908-04-02).

摘　　要：The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time series is analyzed by means of the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method with 60-month window length. Two major oscillatory pairs are found in the series whose periods are quasi-four and quasi-two years respectively. The auto-regressive model, which is developed on the basis of the Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis, is fitted to each of the 9 leading components including the oscillatory pairs. The prediction of SOI with the 36-month lead is obtained from the reconstruction of these extrapolated series. Correlation coefficient between predicted series and 5 months running mean of observed series is up to 0.8. The model can successfully predict the peak and duration of the strong ENSO event from 1997 to 1998. It's also shown that the proper choice of reconstructed components is the key to improve the model prediction.The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time series is analyzed by means of the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method with 60-month window length. Two major oscillatory pairs are found in the series whose periods are quasi-four and quasi-two years respectively. The auto-regressive model, which is developed on the basis of the Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis, is fitted to each of the 9 leading components including the oscillatory pairs. The prediction of SOI with the 36-month lead is obtained from the reconstruction of these extrapolated series. Correlation coefficient between predicted series and 5 months running mean of observed series is up to 0.8. The model can successfully predict the peak and duration of the strong ENSO event from 1997 to 1998. It's also shown that the proper choice of reconstructed components is the key to improve the model prediction.

关 键 词：Southern Oscillation Index singular spectrum analysis principal component RECONSTRUCTION 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]