PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997—1999 EL NINOAND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL  

作　　者：李清泉 赵宗慈 丁一汇 

机构地区：[1]National Climate Center,Beijing 100081

出　　处：《Acta meteorologica Sinica》2001年第2期144-159,共16页

基　　金：This work was financially supported jointly by the open climate research project(96-6LCS-12)of China Meteorological Administration ;the sub-project Ⅱ(96-908-02-05)of National Key Project"Studies on Short-term Climate Prediction System in China".

摘　　要：The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean- atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performed reasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in 1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical Pacific SSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated that the occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997/1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairly well by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and the developing tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predicted successfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina events are above 0.5 at 0—14 lead months.The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean- atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performed reasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in 1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical Pacific SSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated that the occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997/1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairly well by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and the developing tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predicted successfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina events are above 0.5 at 0—14 lead months.

关 键 词：coupled model El Nino La Nina PREDICTION 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]