升降法试验下标准差σ估计的Monte Carlo分析  

Study on σ Estimation in Up-Down Sensitivity Test with Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：张天飞[1] 蔡瑞娇[1] 董海平[1] 曹建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸灾害预防与控制国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《火工品》2004年第2期43-47,共5页Initiators & Pyrotechnics

摘　　要：利用Monte Carlo技术对升降法试验进行了模拟,通过试验结果对标准差s估计值的偏差进行了研究。结果表明:s估计值的偏差不是系统地偏小,有时也偏大,它与升降法试验中的步长、每组试验量、刺激量个数等试验参量有关系,其中刺激量个数对其影响较大。刺激量个数为4、5时s的估计值基本偏小,个数为6、7时普遍偏大。该分析为利用升降法数据进行可靠性评定打下了基础。The up-down sensitivity test is simulated with Monte Carlo method. The deviation of the estimation value of s, the standard deviation, is studied through analysis of the test results, indicating that the estimation value of the s is not systematically lower, sometimes, it become much higher than the real value. The estimation value related to the step size, number of tests and number of test stress, especially the number of test stress. If the number is 4 and 5, the value of s is generally lower, if the number is 6 and 7, the value become higher. This estimation established a foundation for the reliability assessment with up-down sensitivity data.

关 键 词：感度试验 炸药 火工品 可靠性 安全评价 升降法试验 σ估计 

分 类 号：TJ450.6[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]