干旱区城镇主导产业选择模型及评价体系分析与实证——以新疆鄯善县为例  

Selection of leading industry and appraisal system of urban in arid area

作　　者：李雪梅[1,2] 张小雷[1] 杜宏茹[1] 曹建标[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2011年第4期693-699,共7页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重大项目(2006BAJ05A06)资助

摘　　要：根据干旱区城镇区域的特色,干旱区城镇在进行主导产业的选择时必须遵循生态保护原则。依据此原则,以新疆干旱区城镇鄯善县为例,在数据较易获取的基础上,建立了适用于干旱区城镇进行主导产业选择的Weaver-Thomas模型及其评价的指标体系,运用MATLAB软件进行计算。结果表明:石油和天然气开采业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业为鄯善县未来的两大主导产业,这与鄯善县产业发展的实际情况是一致的。说明能源、资源产业作为战略产业仍是鄯善县今后重点发展的产业,是鄯善县工业战略产业系统发展和整个国民经济持续稳定发展的重要保障。同时,研究成果在一定程度上为鄯善县工业主导产业的选择提供了科学依据,并补充和完善了主导产业的选择方法,使主导产业选择更体现出区域的特色。According to the characteristics of cities and towns in the arid area,they must follow ecological protection principles when choosing their leading industries.Based on this principal,Shanshan County of Xinjiang is selected as a study case,whose data are easily obtained,to set up the model of Weaver-Thomas and evaluation index system which are fitted for selecting leading industries of them in the arid area.Then use is made of MATLAB soft to calculate.The results indicate that the industries of petroleum and natural gas extraction and smelt-mangled processing of ferrous metals will be two main leading industries of Shanshan County in future,which is in accord with the actual situation of industries development in Shanshan County.As a strategy industry,it will be put stress on developing its industries of energy sources and natural resources from now on,that is an important safeguard to develop its strategy industry system and all the nation economy.The results could be concluded as follows: Firstly,the author calculates the area leading industry according to the model of Weaver-Thomas model.Secondly,the energy sources industry can pollute its fragility environment.Thirdly,the model of Weaver-Thomas is a good means for choosing leading industries,but this model demands much data which is in need of investigating in Shanshan Country.In conclusion,this article provides scientific foundation for choosing the leading industries in Shanshan County at a certain extent,supplying and perfecting the selection means of leading industries,and embodimenting the regional characteristics of leading industry selection in the arid area.

关 键 词：主导产业 WEAVER-THOMAS模型 干旱区 鄯善 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F224