基于MASNUM海浪预报系统的北印度洋波浪特征模拟与预报分析  

Analyses for Modeling and Forecast of Sea Waves in the North Indian Ocean by Means of MASNUM Wave Forecast System

作　　者：杨永增[1,2] 孙玉娟[1,2] 王关锁 滕涌[1,2] 乔方利[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局第一海洋研究所,山东青岛266061 [2]海洋环境科学与数值模拟国家海洋局重点实验室,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《海洋科学进展》2011年第1期1-9,共9页Advances in Marine Science

基　　金：国家自然科学重点基金--大气-海浪-环流相互作用机理研究及耦合数值模式改进(40730842);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目--亚印太交汇区海气相互作用及其对我国短期气候的影响(2006CB403605),亚洲区域海陆气相互作用机理及其在全球变化中的作用(2010CB950404);基本科研业务费专项资金--波浪破碎对上层湍流运动的作用(GY02-2007G15)

摘　　要：基于MASNUM海浪数值预报系统的全球10 a后报数据库资料,分析了北印度洋区域波浪分布特征。由于该地区受季风控制显著,夏季波浪大于冬季;在空间分布上,西部比东部风大、浪大,在亚丁湾、索马里外海波浪最大。基于Janson-1卫星高度计有效波高观测资料,对MASNUM海浪预报系统的预报性能进行了检验,检验结果表明,预报波高均方根误差在0.5 m左右,短期的24 h预报效果好于48 h和72 h,冬季好于夏季。另外,对预报误差进行了相应的概率分布分析。Based on the 10 years global reanalysis database from the MASNUM Wave Forecast System,the climate characteristics of the wave distribution in the North Indian Ocean are analyzed.Due to the monsoon domination in this region,the waves in summer are heavier than in winter.As the spacial distribution shows,there are heavier waves forced by stronger wind in the west of the ocean than in the east,and the heaviest in offshore of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden.The capability and property of the MASNUM Wave Forecast System are verified using the SWH(Significant Wave Height) observational data from the Jason-1 satellite altimetry.It is learnt from the verification that the overall RMS(Root Mean Square) error of the forecasted SWH is about 0.5m.The errors in the 24 hour forecast result are the least,being less than either in the 48 or the 72 hour forecast one.And the forecast results in winter are more precise than in summer.The probability distributions of the errors in the forecast results are further discussed.

关 键 词：MASNUM海浪预报系统 北印度洋 Janson-1卫星资料 

分 类 号：P76[天文地球—海洋科学]