有效经济增长与中国经济发展阶段再判断——从日本与我国台湾地区的经验谈起  

Effective Economic Growth and Rejudgment of China Economic Development Stage:From the Experience of Japan and Taiwan Region

作　　者：李月[1] 邓露[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,300071 [2]中央财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2011年第2期100-117,共18页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社科院基金<中国跨越"中等收入陷阱"的战略创新研究>(项目号:11CJL003)的资助

摘　　要：本文提出有效经济增长的概念,构建了有效经济增长动态模型,建立了超额人均收入等相关变量的测定方法,试图从一个全新的角度考察经济发展的阶段性规律,并定位当前大陆有效经济增长阶段。基本结论是:有效经济增长大体分为中低速稳定增长阶段、高速波动增长阶段与停滞或小幅下降阶段三个阶段;其中中低速稳定增长阶段为"起飞前准备阶段",高速波动增长阶段为"新起飞阶段";1978年以来我国一直处于"起飞前准备阶段",但当前已接近中低速稳定增长阶段与高速波动增长阶段的转折点,即正向"新起飞"阶段跨越。对此我们应充分借鉴日本与我国台湾地区的成功经验,在新的实践逻辑起点上为祖国大陆制定相关政策提供新思路。This paper introduced the new concept of 'effective economic growth',set up the 'Dynamic model for effective economic growth',put forward determination method of excess income per capita,etc,and attempt to investigate the phased rule of economic de-velopment from new perspective and locate the present stage of effective economic growth of mainland.Our main results are as flowing:Effective economic growth is composed of low steady growth phase,high fluctuant growth phase and stagnation or slight decrease phase.Among them,the low steady growth phase is called 'preparation stage before take-off',and high fluctuant growth phase is called 'new takeoff stage'.Since 1978,our coun-try is immersed at 'preparation stage before takeoff' all the time,however at present it is close to the turning point between low steady growth phase and high fluctuant growth phase,which means China is leaping to 'new takeoff stage'.Therefore we should use the successful experience of Japan and Taiwan Region,and provide new ideas for mainland for-mulating correlated policy in a new particle logic beginning.

关 键 词：有效经济增长 超额人均收入 经济发展阶段 新起飞阶段 趋势预测 

分 类 号：F131.3[经济管理—世界经济] F127