基于PCAIDS模型的单边价格效应模拟——以国际铁矿石巨头力拓与必和必拓拟议的兼并为例  

The Simulation of the Unilateral Price Effects of Proposed Merger between Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton

作　　者：王继平[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学经济学院,300134

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2011年第2期147-153,共7页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:70973087)

摘　　要：本文基于爱泼斯坦和鲁宾菲尔德提出的PCAIDS模型,模拟了国际铁矿石生产和出口巨头力拓与必和必拓之间2007年10月提出的兼并的单边效应。研究发现,该兼并对世界铁矿石市场价格将产生重要影响,特别是兼并后形成的新企业将大幅度提高其产品的价格。兼并也会引起印度、巴西和南非铁矿石提价,尽管幅度要比"两拓"要小一些。中国的进口铁矿石主要来自于两拓、巴西、印度和南非,因此,如果"两拓"兼并将极大地提高我国进口铁矿石的成本。Based on the PCAIDS model which was provided by Epstein and Rubinfeld(2001,2004),this paper simulates the unilateral price effects of the proposed merger between Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton on October,2007.The conclusion is that this merger will increase the price of iron ore in the world market,particularly the price of the iron ore of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.Since the import of iron ore in China mostly comes from the Australia,Brazil,India and South-ern Africa,the cost of the import of the iron ore will be substantially increased if the merge be-tween Rio Tinto and BHP Billion could really be approved.

关 键 词：力拓与必和必拓兼并 PCAIDS模型 兼并模拟 单边效应 

分 类 号：F416.1[经济管理—产业经济]