甘南州旅游业综合竞争力评价及预测分析  

Gannan Tourism Comprehensive Competitiveness and Forecast Analysis

作　　者：段文彬[1] 闫颖慧[1] 张春花[1] 苏有文[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃民族师范学院历史文化系,甘肃合作747000

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2011年第1期188-191,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：甘肃民族师范学院院长科研基金项目(08-10)

摘　　要：基于SPSS12.0大型统计软件,运用因子分析法,选取24个指标,对甘肃省12市州进行旅游业综合竞争力评价。从中分析甘南州旅游现状竞争力得分、旅游环境支持竞争力得分、旅游潜力竞争力得分以及旅游业综合竞争力排序。采用趋势外推法预测甘南州旅游业未来一个时期将呈现持续增长的态势,表现出较强的竞争力。最后,基于对甘南州旅游业竞争力评价及预测结果,就提高甘南州旅游业综合竞争力提出五点对策。Based on the statistical software of SPSS12.0,using the factor analysis method,choosing twenty-four indexes of twelve cities in Gansu province,comparing their comprehensive competitive power on tourism. We analyzed the current tourism competitiveness scoring,the tourism environment support competitive scoring,and tourism potential scoring and tourism competitiveness of comprehensive competitiveness of Gannan. We adopted trend extrapolation predict Gannan tourism will present a growing trend,and represent strong competitiveness in future. Finally,based on tourism competitiveness evaluation results and predict in Gannan,the author presents five countermeasures to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of Gannan.

关 键 词：甘南州 旅游业综合竞争力 因子分析法 预测分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]