民生支出有助于减低刑事犯罪率吗?——来自中国(1995—2008)省级面板数据的证据  

Will the Expenditure on People’s Livelihood Reduce Crime Rate:Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data(1995-2008)

作　　者：毛颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院中国西部经济发展研究中心

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2011年第4期32-49,共18页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：中国日益严重的刑事犯罪是和谐社会建设道路上的一大挑战。究竟什么导致了中国刑事犯罪率的不断攀升?在减少刑事犯罪的道路上,我们需要采取什么样的有力措施?本文试图从政府民生支出的角度对之加以解释。本文首先在文献认识的基础上提出假说;然后利用中国(1995—2008)的省级面板数据,运用动态面板数据方法进行验证;在进行一系列稳健性检验之后发现:民生支出的增加对刑事犯罪率的攀升具有抑制作用;但随财政分权程度的提高,民生支出对刑事犯罪率的抑制作用逐渐被削弱。本文的政策含义是,在新时期构建和谐社会的道路上,政府必须转变控制犯罪率的策略,从简单的通过国家机器维稳走向关注民生的道路。One of Chinese major challenges to building a harmonious society is increasingly serious crimes.hat lead to Chinese rising crime rate and what measures we need to take to reduce it? The paper attempts to explain this problem from government’s expenditure on people’s liveli-hood.t first,we put forward the hypothesis based on literatures;then verify it by means of dy-namic panel data method,using Chinese provincial panel data from 1995—2008.After conduct-ing a series of robustness tests,we conclude that increased spending on people's livelihood will inhibit the rising criminal rate.hile with a higher level of fiscal decentralization,the effect of inhibition will be undermined gradually.atherly,the advice is that Chinese government must transform criminal control strategy from the simple maintenance of stability towards focusing on people's livelihood.

关 键 词：民生支出 财政分权 刑事犯罪率 和谐社会 

分 类 号：D917[政治法律—法学] F812.45[经济管理—财政学]