经济和能源地缘格局变化及中美战略对策  

Changes in Economy and Energy Geopolitics and China's Sino-US Strategy

作　　者：张抗[1,2] 卢雪梅 

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工股份有限公司石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]<中外能源>学术指导委员会

出　　处：《中外能源》2012年第2期1-7,共7页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：本世纪头10年世界经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移,转向东亚—南亚弧形地带,其中中国和印度成为领跑者,这一趋势将至少持续到本世纪30年代。中国和印度占世界GDP的份额分别从2000年的3.72%和1.49%上升到2010年的9.34%和2.44%。2000～2010年间世界能源消费总量年均增长率为2.67%,而中国和印度则分别为11.54%和5.18%。2001～2010年间,北美、日本的石油进口量呈下降趋势,欧洲呈微弱增长态势;而同期中国石油进口量年均增长率达16.29%,印度2000～2009年间石油进口量年均增长率为6.32%。2000～2010年间世界煤炭消费量年均增长率为4.84%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的30%;而中国10年间煤炭消费量的年均增长率为13.21%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的70.3%。中国能源消费总量增长过快、能源构成不合理的问题相当突出,必须加大对能源消费总量的控制,大力调整能源结构,坚决扭转煤炭占能源构成比例持续升高的局面。与经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移相应的是中美两国战略思维的变化。美国战略重点东移、"重返亚洲"的目的是遏制中国,这不过是冷战时期围堵的老思维;但美国同时又必须与中国合作,双方的相互渗透、相互依存已经达到相当的程度。而中国必须看到国内外经济形势的变化,形成新的战略思维,改变发展方式,坚定不移地以改革促稳定,以结构调整保发展。During the first decade of this century,the center of economic and energy consumption growth in the world began to shift eastwards to the East Asia-South Asia arc region with China and India being in the forefront.This trend will continue until at least the 2030s.From 2000 to 2010,the shares of China and India in the world's GDP rose to 9.34% and 2.44% from 3.72% and 1.49% respectively.From 2000 to 2010,the world's energy consumption grew at an annual rate of 2.67%,while China and India respectively witnessed 11.54% and 5.18% growth in their energy consumption during the same period.During 2001 to 2010,oil imports in North America and Japan declined and European imports grew slightly.In contrast,China's oil imports grew 16.29% annually during the same period and India's oil imports during 2000 to 2009 grew 6.32% annually.From 2000 to 2010,the world's coal consumption rose 4.84% per year on average.In 2010,coal represented 30% of the world's total fundamental energy consumption.During the same period,China's coal consumption grew 13.21% yearly and in 2010 coal represented 70.3% of the country's total fundamental coal consumption.China's energy consumption has been growing too fast and its energy mix is rather irrational.To address these problems,China must control its energy consumption,step up the adjustment to its energy mix and make efforts to stem the continuous increase of share of coal in the energy mix.Coinciding with the eastward shift of the center of economic and energy consumption growth in the world is the change in the strategic thinking of China and the United States.The United States' moves to shift its strategic focus eastwards and return to Asia are aimed at containing China and are sheer out of the outdated thinking of containment seen in the cold war era.At the same time,the United States has to work together with China as the two countries have deep ties and are highly dependent on each other.China must monitor the changes in economic climate both within and outside of the country,develop new s

关 键 词：中美战略思维 经济 能源 地缘格局 能源消费总量 能源构成 结构调整 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F416.2[经济管理—世界经济]