国内成品油定价机制及其对炼油企业的影响  

China′s Oil Product Pricing System and Its Influence on Refiners

作　　者：张传兆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工股份有限公司镇海炼化分公司,浙江宁波315207

出　　处：《中外能源》2012年第3期12-17,共6页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：近年来,消费者和社会普遍质疑国内成品油价格是"涨快跌慢"、"涨多跌少"。油价不断上涨,其根本原因是国际原油价格的持续上涨和国内石油需求的大幅增长。通过对比国内外不含税成品油价格可见,截至2011年10月9日,原油移动变化率合计上涨105.39%,Brent油价上涨61.60%,而国内90号汽油价格仅上涨38.99%,同时下调油价速度远远快于上调速度。在当前政策条件下,炼油企业没有成品油定价权,既要面对原油价格高涨、原油成本占生产成本95%左右的现实,又要服从国家以民生利益为重的指导思想,成品油价格只能少涨或不涨。经粗略计算,原油价格92.5美元/bbl是目前炼油企业的赢亏平衡点,按2012年1月30日Brent油价110.75美元/bbl和当日汇率计算,炼油企业每加工1t原油就亏损约844元人民币。当前的成品油定价机制有必要进一步改进,建议应把22个工作日缩短为10个或5个,油价波动幅度缩小为2%~3%;适当修正同等涨跌幅度下上涨和下跌之间存在的额度差异;适当选择并合理调整参照原油的品种和权重;同时也可以考虑将成品油消费税由价内税改为价外税。In recent years,the movement of oil product prices in China,which is characterized by fast and large-sized increases and slow and small-sized decreases,has been widely questioned by the public.The root causes of the frequent increases of domestic oil prices are the continuous rise of international oil prices and the surge in domestic oil demand.A comparison between the tax-free oil prices in China and foreign countries shows that as of October 9,2011,the crude oil moving rate had increased 105.39% and Brent crude prices had risen 61.60%,while China′s domestic prices of 90-octane gasoline had increased only 38.99%.In addition,during that period,the frequency of reducing oil prices was far higher than that of raising oil prices.Under China′s current policies,oil refining enterprises do not have the right to set oil product prices.On the one hand,they need to face the fact where crude prices are soaring and crude cost represents about 95% of their production cost,and on the other hand they have to follow the state′s guidelines of serving the people′s interest.They could only try their best to cut the size of increases in their oil product prices or even give up their plans to raise prices.On rough calculations,the US$92.5/bbl crude price is the breakeven point of domestic refining enterprises.At the Brent oil price of US$110.75/bbl and the exchange rate on January 30,2012,a refiner would lose around 844 yuan for processing one ton of crude oil.The existing oil product pricing system must be improved.We suggest shortening the price adjusting cycle of 22 working days to 10 or 5,reducing the oil price fluctuation range to 2%-3%,properly adjusting the difference between increases and decreases in domestic oil prices when international oil prices increased and decreased in the same range,selecting and adjusting the combinations and shares of weights of reference crude oils,and considering switching to levying oil product consumption tax outside product prices from levying inside prices.

关 键 词：成品油定价机制 原油移动变化率 不含税价 炼油 赢亏平衡点 Brent油价 消费税 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]