青海共和盆地气温的时空动态及其效应分析  

Temporal - Spatial Analysis of Temperature and Its Effect on Climate and Water in Qinghai Gonghe Basin

作　　者：孙建光[1] 李保国[1] 卢琦[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源和环境学院,北京100094 [2]中国林科院,北京100091

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2004年第3期100-106,i006,共8页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关重大项目(编号:2002BA517A09-01).

摘　　要：在青藏高原东北缘的青海共和盆地,本文依据三个主要气象站(茶卡、恰卜恰和贵南)及18个临时气象站的长短期气象资料和共和县(恰卜恰站)的土壤水分资料,利用时间序列分析、数字高程模型和Penman-Monteith公式,对共和盆地的年均温时空变化及其对气候的影响进行了分析。结果表明:共和盆地的年均温序列是非平稳的,存在线性增长趋势;依据年均温的线性模型,茶卡、恰卜恰和贵南的气温平均每年分别升高0.0247、0.0422和0.0272℃;共和盆地的两大沙地(沙珠玉-塔拉滩和木格滩)处于气温高值区(1.0-4.0℃和1.0-2.9℃),而且气温的空间分布与年潜在蒸散的空间分布是显著的正相关;由于气温升高,盆地内水汽压饱和差和潜在蒸散增大,表层土壤水分减少,因此共和盆地的气候会逐渐趋于干燥;但研究期内气温升高的效应比较小,所以短期内(尤其是研究期内)共和盆地的荒漠化加剧问题有待进一步分析。In the northeastern part of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau lies Gong-he basin. The paper discusses the temporal-spatial characteristic of temperature and its effect on climate and water according to the meteorological data (1953-2001) from three weather stations and soil water material (1980-2002) in Qiabuqia weather station by time series method, DEM and Penman-Mon-teith equation. The results show that annual temperature time series are not stationary, but with linear upward trend; and annual average temperature in Chaka and Qiabuqia and Guinan is increasing by 0.0247,0.0422 and 0.0272℃ respectively per year according to the linear model in Gong-he basin; furthermore, the spatial distribution of annual average temperature can be simulated by using multivariable linear model based on digital elevation model (DEM 100×100m2) and by using the data at three permanent weather stations and more than ten temporary weather stations. The two big sand bands(Shazuyu-Tala and Mugetan) is in the higher scope of temperature(1.0-4.0℃ and 1.0-2.9℃) according to the simulated result, and there is a direct correlation between annual temperature and potential evapotranspiration in space; with temperature rising, the saturated difference of water pressure and potential evapotranspiration increases gradually, and soil water decreases in topsoil; so it makes the climate drier, and desertification become more serious gradually in the future in Gong-he basin in Qinghai province. But in short-term, especially in the period of research, the change of climate is very slight, so the cause of desertification needs to be analyzed further in Gong-he basin.

关 键 词：青藏高原 共和盆地 温度 DEM 气候变暖 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]