Analysis on the Forecast Characteristics of K Index and Low-altitude Jet Stream in the Rainstorm Process  

K指数和低空急流暴雨过程中的预报特征分析(英文)

作　　者：马晓刚 李月安[2] 李丽光[3] 魏涛 李辑[5] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省阜新市气象局,辽宁阜新123000 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081 [3]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110016 [4]贵州省气象台,贵州贵阳550002 [5]辽宁省沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110016

出　　处：《Meteorological and Environmental Research》2010年第10期75-78,共4页气象与环境研究（英文版）

摘　　要：By using the durative rainstorm data in South China during May-early June in 2010,the forecast characteristics of K index and low level jet were analyzed.The results found that K2 had the good indication,advancement and relativity on the intensity and falling zone forecast of regional rainstorm in future 24 h,and the positive relative coefficient reached 0.987.The low level jet also had the same advancement and indication significance on the intensity and influence scope of regional rainstorm in 24 h in the future,and the relative coefficient reached above 0.8.K2 and the low level jet were selected as the main factors,and the basic conceptual model of rainstorm falling zone was established.The model has passed the computer program and realized the business automation.K2 provided the important basis for the forecast of rainstorm intensity and falling zone.By using the durative rainstorm data in South China during May-early June in 2010,the forecast characteristics of K index and low level jet were analyzed.The results found that K2 had the good indication,advancement and relativity on the intensity and falling zone forecast of regional rainstorm in future 24 h,and the positive relative coefficient reached 0.987.The low level jet also had the same advancement and indication significance on the intensity and influence scope of regional rainstorm in 24 h in the future,and the relative coefficient reached above 0.8.K2 and the low level jet were selected as the main factors,and the basic conceptual model of rainstorm falling zone was established.The model has passed the computer program and realized the business automation.K2 provided the important basis for the forecast of rainstorm intensity and falling zone.

关 键 词：K2 Low level jet Forecast characteristics Model of rainstorm falling zone China 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]