Establishment of Statistical Model for Precipitation Prediction in the Flood Season in China  

作　　者：CHENG Zhi1,2 1.College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China 2.Key Laboratory for Climate-Environment in East Asian Region,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 

出　　处：《Meteorological and Environmental Research》2011年第3期1-3,共3页气象与环境研究（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the Science and Technology Support Item (2007BAC294);National Natural Science Fund (40775048,41075058)

摘　　要：[Objective] The research aimed to establish the regression model which was used to predict the precipitation in the flood season in China.[Method] Based on statistical model,North Atlantic oscillation index and the sea surface temperature index in development and declining stages of ENSO were used to predict East Asian summer monsoon index.After the stations were divided into 16 zones,the same factors were used to establish the regression model predicting the station precipitation in the flood season in China.Moreover,it was compared with the model that predicted firstly the monsoon index and estimated the precipitation.[Result] The prediction results of summer precipitation during 2005-2009 by every model were contrasted.It was found that the model that the factor predicted indirectly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the station precipitation.Meanwhile,the model that the factor predicted directly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the regional precipitation.The prediction score P of optimum model that three factors predicted directly the regional precipitation reached averagely 74.2,and the anomaly correlation coefficient ACC was averagely 0.219.Seen from the comparison situation of positive and negative zone distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage between the predicted and observed values in 5 years,the prediction effects in the south and east of Northeast China,some areas in the south of Yangtze River,the coast of South China and most areas of Xinjiang were good.The predicted positive/negative distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage tallied with that of observation.[Conclusion] The model could predict well summer precipitation in China.[Objective] The research aimed to establish the regression model which was used to predict the precipitation in the flood season in China.[Method] Based on statistical model,North Atlantic oscillation index and the sea surface temperature index in development and declining stages of ENSO were used to predict East Asian summer monsoon index.After the stations were divided into 16 zones,the same factors were used to establish the regression model predicting the station precipitation in the flood season in China.Moreover,it was compared with the model that predicted firstly the monsoon index and estimated the precipitation.[Result] The prediction results of summer precipitation during 2005-2009 by every model were contrasted.It was found that the model that the factor predicted indirectly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the station precipitation.Meanwhile,the model that the factor predicted directly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the regional precipitation.The prediction score P of optimum model that three factors predicted directly the regional precipitation reached averagely 74.2,and the anomaly correlation coefficient ACC was averagely 0.219.Seen from the comparison situation of positive and negative zone distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage between the predicted and observed values in 5 years,the prediction effects in the south and east of Northeast China,some areas in the south of Yangtze River,the coast of South China and most areas of Xinjiang were good.The predicted positive/negative distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage tallied with that of observation.[Conclusion] The model could predict well summer precipitation in China.

关 键 词：East Asian monsoon index Linear regression Summer precipitation ENSO North Atlantic oscillation index China 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]