川滇前兆群体异常与成组强震  

Anomalies of Precursory Group and the Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

作　　者：石绍先[1] 程万正[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明东华小区知春街650041 [2]四川省地震局,四川成都610041

出　　处：《中国地震》2004年第2期170-178,共9页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关项目 (课题编号 2 0 0 1BA6 0 1B0 1- 0 2 - 0 4 )

摘　　要：本文给出了前兆群体异常信息提取的 3种方法 ,即前兆综合信息量S、前兆群体非均匀度ID ,以及近源异常凸现值NS的数学分析。利用这些方法 ,对川滇地区地形变、地下流体、水化学组分等多种监测手段的多台项观测资料进行了统一计算分析。研究结果表明 ,在川滇地区 ,单个 6级地震与成组强震的前兆群体异常表现有较大差异 ,成组强震前兆群体异常信息更为丰富。所给出的多种前兆群体异常信息提取方法和计算结果 ,可在川滇成组强震预报实践中应用 ,其中前兆群体非均匀度是以群体前兆异常分布特征是否被突破作为异常标准的 ,能够自动识别异常。Three methods to extracting the information about anomalies of precursory group are put forward. Through the mathematical-analysis of the data obtained in deformation observation, underground fluid observation and hydrochemical observation in different seismic stations by synthetic information of earthquake precursor(S), inhomogeneous degree of synthetic precursory anomaly(ID) and the displayed values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area(NS), a conclusion is drawn that in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, the synthetic precursory anomalies of the single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ from the synthetic precursory anomalies of the grouped strong earthquakes and the information about precursory anomaly are more abundant. The three methods to extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of the grouped-earthquake prediction in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous Degree (ID) of Synthetic Precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the break of distributive features of the anomalies of precursory group as the anomalous criteria.

关 键 词：前兆群体异常 综合信息 近源短临特征异常 成组强震预搬 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]