基于灰色理论的汽轮机振动预测  

GREY THEORY BASED VIBRATION PREDICTION FOR STEAM TURBINES

作　　者：梁磊 苏雷涛[2] 冯永新[2] 蒋东翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室,北京100084 [2]广东电网公司电力科学研究院,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热力发电》2012年第10期21-24,共3页Thermal Power Generation

基　　金：Supported by:The National Nature Science Foundation Project(60979014)

摘　　要：阐述了灰色预测方法的预测机理及其在安全预测领域的应用优势。采用该方法对某汽轮机后6h的振动幅值进行预测,并利用关联度和后验差对预测结果进行检验。结果表明,灰色预测法在汽轮机振动趋势预测中后验差小,预测精度等级为一级,可预知汽轮机振动幅值的变化趋势,以便及时采取相应措施,提高机组的运行安全性。The Mechanism of grey prediction method and its application advantages in safety prediction were described.This method was used to predict the vibration amplitude within the coming 6 hours for a steam turbine.Moreover,the prediction results were examined using correlation degree and posterior error.Results indicated that,this grey prediction method had small posterior error and got a grade I accuracy.We can foreknow the variation trend of vibration amplitude of the steam turbine through this method,so as to take timely countermeasures.Therefore,the operation safety of the power unit was improved.

关 键 词：灰色预测 后验差 关联度 汽轮机 振动 

分 类 号：TK268.+1[动力工程及工程热物理—动力机械及工程]