农户耕地利用影响因素二元Logistic回归模型分析——以新疆阿瓦提县为例  

Analysis of Influence Factors of Farmers' Cultivated Land Use by Binary Logistic Regression Mode——A Case Study of Awat County in Xinjiang

作　　者：万婷[1] 蒲春玲[1] 刘志有[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2012年第7期1366-1370,共5页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国际合作项目(2009DFA92860)

摘　　要：[目的]分析阿瓦提县农户耕地利用的主要影响因素,为引导农户合理利用耕地、提高耕地产出效益、推进耕地可持续利用提供依据。[方法]二元Logistic回归模型。[结果]阿瓦提县劳动力数量、耕地投入、政策补贴、灌溉保证率、耕地面积、农产品市场、土壤质量、农业保险等依次对农户耕地利用的影响比较显著,各因素的影响差异客观存在。[结论]应从提高耕地集约利用水平,完善农业水利设施建设,增加农业生资补贴,推行农业生产政策保险等方面引导农户合理利用耕地。[Objective]The aim of this research aimed to analyze the main factors in farmers' cultivated land use in Awat County in order to provide a basis for guiding fanners to make a rational use of arable land, thus raising productivity benefits and promoting the cultivated land for sustainable use.[Method]Binary logistic regression model was used in the study.[Result]Farmers cultivated land use was obviously affected by the amount of labor,cultivated land inputs,policies subsidies,irrigation guarantee rate,land area,markets for agricultural products,soil quality and agricultural insurance.[Conclusion]We should start with improving the levels of intensive cultivated land use,enhancing agricultural irrigation facilities,increasing the agricultural subsidies,implementing the insurance of agricultural production to guide farmers to use cultivated land rationally.

关 键 词：农户 耕地利用 影响因素 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]