基于PERT的工程网络计划模糊完工概率分析  

Analysis on fuzzy completion probability of network plan of project construction based on PERT

作　　者：陈瑞[1] 黄建文[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学科技学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《人民长江》2012年第20期92-94,101,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：教育部科学技术研究重点项目(208092);宜昌市科学技术研究与开发项目(A2011-302-1)

摘　　要：由于工程建设项目工期较长,而影响工期风险的因素众多,对其进行风险分析及控制显得尤为重要。在PERT(计划评审技术)和模糊概率理论下,提出基于PERT的模糊完工概率分析模型,在此模型中赋予计划工期一个隶属度函数,根据项目的具体情况,完成对项目工期风险的模糊等级评价,可有效提高网络计划完工概率的估计精度,并且与传统的PERT法相比,结果更加符合实际情况。通过实例分析,该方法可为工程决策者在进行工期风险决策时提供依据。The risk analysis and control of project construction are significant because of long construction period and numerous risk factors.Based on Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) and fuzzy probabilistic theory,an analytical model of fuzzy completion probability is proposed.The planned period is endowed with a member function,which can be used to complete the evaluation for fuzzy degree of risk during the construction period in view of the specific conditions of project.In this way,it can raise estimated accuracy of network plan completion probability.Meanwhile,the result is more in line with the actual situation compared with PERT method.The case analysis shows that the method can provide the basis for making the risk decisions of construction period for engineering decision makers.

关 键 词：模糊完工概率 概率分析 PERT 隶属度 

分 类 号：P391[天文地球—地球物理学]