经济增长与实际汇率对中国进口贸易结构的影响  

The Impacts of Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate on China's Import Structure

作　　者：陈志昂[1] 陈丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学金融学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《山东财政学院学报》2012年第5期31-37,共7页Journal of Shandong Finance Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"全球经济失衡与汇率和工资政策搭配"(70973111);浙江省教育厅人文社科金融学研究中心资助课题(JYTJR20111201)

摘　　要：为掌握经济增长与实际汇率对中国进口的影响,文章对进口贸易总额和进口结构进行了实证研究。对进口总额的实证结果表明,经济增长对进口贸易总额的影响较为显著,进口需求弹性高达1.37,而实际有效汇率对进口的影响微弱。根据联合国SITC,将进口商品分为10类,对2001-2008年的月度数据建立面板数据模型,检验经济增长、名义汇率和相对价格对我国进口贸易结构的影响,结果显示,相对价格变动是中国进口结构变动的主要原因。进口结构变化对相对价格的敏感度最高,名义汇率的调节作用主要限于劳动密集型,进口结构变化对GDP的敏感度可以忽略不计。实证结果也显示,矿物和能源进口的绝对值虽然在持续提升,但经济增长对能源的依赖程度呈下降的趋势。To analyze the impacts of economic growth and real exchange rate on China's import,we set up a model to study the total import trade firstly.It suggests that the impact of economic growth on import is remarkable,while the impact of real effective exchange rate is slight.The elasticity of import demand is as high as 1.37.Then,to study the impacts of nominal exchange rate,relative price and economic growth on China's import structure by classifying the import goods into ten categories according to SITC,to set up panel data models based on the pool data which are monthly data from 2001 to 2008.The result shows that economic growth and the rise of relative price are the main reasons for the proportion of resources intensive products imports to increase constantly.But the dependence of economic growth on energy tends to decrease.China's import substitution of capital technology intensive imports is increasing constantly.The impact of relative price on import structure is remarkable,while that of exchange rate is limited.

关 键 词：进口贸易总额 进口贸易结构 经济增长 汇率 国际贸易标准分类 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]