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出 处:《改革与战略》2012年第6期207-211,共5页Reformation & Strategy
摘 要:国际货币体系的演变史表明,中心和外围国家的国际收支结构是不同的,资源与财富注定由后者向前者转移,外围国家承担不同程度的福利损失。持续逆差将导致外围国家陷入债务危机和贫困的境地,进而打断经济发展进程;持续顺差将为一国开放经济提供一个稳定的条件,但其付出的代价也是高昂的。对于中国而言,人民币国际化之前,出口导向的经济增长模式必将伴随着持续的国际收支顺差及其福利损失,对外开放战略转型刻不容缓。Evolution of the international monetary system demonstrates that core and peripheral countries have different international balance of payments in structure,with resources and wealth flowing from peripheral countries to the core,and peripheral countries should suffer more or less losses in welfare.However,continued deficits will lead to external debt crisis and poverty,and then interrupt the process of economic development,while continuing surplus will provide them a stable environment for open economy but they will pay a lot for this surplus too.For China,before the internationalization of the RMB,the export-led economic growth mode will bring with a sustained surplus of balance of payments and welfare losses.The present open economy strategy needs to be timely adjusted.
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