滑坡泥石流风险评估框架体系  

Discussion on framework of landslide and debris-flow risk assessments

作　　者：胡凯衡[1,2] 丁明涛[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,四川成都610041 [2]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [3]西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2013年第2期26-30,共5页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目群(KZCX2-YW-Q03-5);国家重点基础研究发展计划资助(2011CB409902);中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所青年百人团队项目(110900k235)

摘　　要：滑坡泥石流灾害风险评估目前没有一个统一的概念体系和理论框架。从滑坡泥石流风险评估的基本概念出发,综合分析不确定性与灾害以及灾害与风险之间的关系,明确区分了"灾害体"、"灾害事件"和"灾害现象"三种含义,界定了灾害易发性、危险性和风险性的内涵。然后从这些明确的概念出发,提出了危险性和易损性的数学表达形式,由此构建了滑坡泥石流风险评估的理论框架,以期能够为今后的滑坡泥石流风险研究工作提供参考。The lack of a unified concept system and theoretical framework is a key problem for the further development of landslide and debris-flow risk assessments.By investigating of the basic concepts of risk assessment and analyzing the relationships between uncertainty and hazard as well as hazard and risk,the connotation of susceptibility,hazard and risk are defined clearly.According to these definitions of the concepts,mathematical expressions of hazard and vulnerability are proposed,and the methods for different scales and categories of risk assessments are discussed.A quantitative and semi-quantitative theoretical framework is constructed with the concepts,definitions,and mathematical expressions,and can be served as a basis for the risk assessment of landslide and debris flow.

关 键 词：滑坡 泥石流 风险评估 理论框架 体系 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]