中国城市化影响因素的实证研究——来自2004～2008年省际面板数据的经验证据  

Empirical Study of the Influential Factors of China Urbanization:the Evidence of Inter-Provincial Panel Data from 2004～2008

作　　者：孙晓华[1] 郭玉娇[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第1期36-40,共5页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:"技术创新与产业演化:理论及实证"(10FJL011);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目:"城市化与产业结构调整的互动机理:基于演化经济学的新视角"(DUT10RW31)

摘　　要：城市化是一种社会经济现代化的空间表现形式。文章从经济发展水平、产业结构和社会发展水平三个方面考察了城市化的影响因素,并以我国2004～2008年省际面板数据为样本进行了实证检验,结果表明:地区经济发展水平是影响城市化的基本要素,体现经济发展水平的人均GDP和人均可支配收入对城市化具有显著的正效应;表征产业结构的第二、三产业就业比重和产值比重的系数都显著为正,通过回归系数对比可以发现,现阶段工业化具有更强的带动作用;衡量社会发展水平的恩格尔系数与城市化率存在明显的负相关关系,而固定资产投资对城市化的影响不显著。Urbanization is a socio-economic modernization in space forms.The article examines the effects of urbanization from the economic development, industry structure and social development.Then, the panel data of Chinese provinces from 2004to 2008are used as samples to make an empirical test.Results indicate that the economic development is an essential element that reflects urbanization.Per capita GDP and per capita disposable income characteristic of the local economic development have significant positive effects on urbanization.The proportion coefficients of secondary industry and tertiary industry employment share and the output value are significantly positive.By comparing the regression coefficients we can find that the industrialization at this stage plays a stronger role in promoting urbanization.Engel coefficient measuring the level of social development has a clear negative correlation with the level of urbanization, while the effect of the fixed assets investment is not significant.

关 键 词：城市化 工业化 影响因素 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]