房地产业对地方财政与地区经济的影响效应——基于多元分析方法  

The Effect of Real Estate Industry on Local Finance and Regional Economy:A Multivariate Analysis

作　　者：张伦俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京审计学院国民经济研究所,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《南京审计学院学报》2013年第4期18-26,共9页journal of nanjing audit university

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10BTJ014)

摘　　要：基于近些年来的统计数据,采用典型相关分析、面板数据模型、聚类分析等方法对我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)房地产业的基本状况进行多元分析,从数量上解读房地产业产值、投资、经营收入及相关税种收入等与地方财政、地区经济指标之间的影响效应关系,结果显示,房地产业对地方财政有重要的支撑作用,但是其拉动效应依赖于地区经济基础,存在着地区不平衡。推进"费改税"、开征保有环节税、完善房地产税制等将对地方财政产生积极的影响。Based on the statistical data in recent years,this paper applies canonical correlation analysis,the panel data model,and the clustering analysis method to analyze the basic situation of the real estate industry in 31 provinces(municipality directly under the central government and autonomous regions),and interprets quantitatively the relationship between the real estate value,investment,operating income,related tax income and local finance and regional economy.The research shows that the real estate industry is an important support to the local finance,but its stimulating effect depends on the local economy,which is imbalanced among regions.The policy of 'fee to tax',a possession tax,and the real estate tax policy shall have positive influence on local finance and regional economy.

关 键 词：房地产业 房地产税收 地方财政 经济影响效应 多元分析 土地财政 费改税 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学] F293.3F127F224