碳排放因素分解模型及其在辽宁省的应用  

Decomposition Model of Carbon Emissions and Its Application in Liaoning Province

作　　者：狄乾斌[1] 吴佳璐[1] 张洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2012年第2期9-13,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41101571);教育部人文社科重点研究基地项目基金(10JJD790015)联合资助

摘　　要：基于碳排放量的基本等式,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法(logarithmic mean weight Divisia index,LMDI),构建辽宁省人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析了1999～2009年间,能源结构、能源效率和经济发展等因素的变化对辽宁省人均碳排放的影响,结果显示经济发展和能源效率对辽宁省人均碳排放的贡献率呈拉动性增长,而能源结构对抑制辽宁省的人均碳排放的作用不大。这说明辽宁省的能源效率较低,以煤为主的能源结构未发生根本性变化,单凭能源结构的抑制作用不能抵消由经济发展和能源效率拉动的辽宁省的中国碳排放量的增长。文章结尾根据分析结果还提出了辽宁省碳减排的对策建议。Carbon emissions exist everywhere in our daily life and the energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions.With the strong economic growth of Liaoning Province,rising consumption of energy and difficulty in changing coal-focused energy structure in the short term,carbon emissions grow inevitably.A decomposition model of carbon emissions per capita for Liaoning Province is set up by applying logarithmic mean weight Divisia index(LMDI) method based on the identity of carbon emissions.The model is applied to analyze the influence of energy structure,energy efficiency,and economic development to carbon emissions per capita in Liaoning Province from 1999 to 2008.The results indicate that economic development and energy efficiency both contribute to the increase of carbon emissions per capita for Liaoning Province and the inhibitory effects of energy structure on carbon emissions per capita for Liaoning Province are weak.This shows that the energy efficiency of Liaoning Province is low and the coal focused energy structure hasn't gone through the fundamental changes.The inhibitory effects of energy structure alone cannot prevent the increase of carbon emissions pulled by economic development and energy efficiency.In view of the results,it's necessary for Liaoning Province to take intensive efforts to reverse the trend of carbon emissions increase.The end of the paper puts forward countermeasures for carbon emission reduction of Liaoning Province.

关 键 词：碳排放 因素分解 能源效率 能源结构 辽宁省 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F127[经济管理—世界经济] F224