四川省能源消耗二氧化碳排放与减排目标分析  

Analysis on Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption and Reduction Goal in Sichuan Province

作　　者：桓汉青[1] 刘伟[1] 陈超凡[1] 陈冬冬[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院资源环境学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2013年第1期59-63,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101542);四川省教育厅重点项目(12ZA226);成都信息工程学院科研基金(CRF201227)

摘　　要：为应对全球气候变化,中国政府决定到2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放较2005年下降40%～45%。在参考IPCC能源碳排放系数和中国碳氧化率等基础上,结合中国实际建立了能源消耗二氧化碳核算方法。以四川省为例,分析其2000～2010年间能源消耗二氧化碳排放,同时建立情景方案分析二氧化碳减排目标。结果表明:四川省能源消耗以煤为主,2010年能源消耗二氧化碳排放量为26900.15万吨,占全国排放总量的3.23%,且增速较快。单位GDP二氧化碳排放总体呈下降趋势,2000～2010年间年均下降率为2.4%,但与发达国家差距明显。建立的3个二氧化碳减排目标方案中,与趋势发展情景和规划发展情景相比,适宜发展情景更加合理,在该情景方案下,2015年单位GDP二氧化碳排放较2010年下降17.08%,2020年较2005年下降45.55%,可完成规划目标且更符合四川省发展实际。最后根据分析结果提出了四川省二氧化碳减排建议。In order to tackle global climate change,China has set a goal of cutting carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40% to 45% by 2020 from the level in 2005. The method of accounting carbon dioxide was established based on IPCC's Carbon e- mission factor ( CEF) and Oxidized carbon ratio ( OCR) ,and actual conditions in China. Then take Sichuan province as an exam- ple,the carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption from 2000 to 2010 was analyzed. Meanwhile,scenario programs were cre- ated and applied to analyze the reduction goal of carbon dioxide emissions. The analysis results showed that coal was the main ener- gy source in Sichuan province,the carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 was 269. 0015 million tons,accounting for 3. 23 percent of to- tal emissions in China,and it would unceasingly grow. Carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP showed a descend trend general- ly,the annual average decline rate was 2. 4 percent from 2000 to 2010,but the gap was obvious compared with developed coun- tries. In three schemes of carbon dioxide emission reduction targets,compared with the tendency and planned development scenar- io,the appropriate development scenario will finish the goal and more in line with the actual development of Sichuan province, which makes the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 will reduce 45. 55 percent compared with 2005,and 2015 would reduce 17. 08 percent compared with 2010. Finally,suggestions of carbon dioxide emissions reduction in Sichuan province were proposed according to the analysis results.

关 键 词：能源 二氧化碳 情景分析 四川省 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]