新疆绿洲产业发展生态安全预警研究  

Study on Ecological Security Alarm of Industrial Development in Xinjiang Oasis

作　　者：张风丽[1] 安梅梅[1] 龚新蜀[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2013年第1期168-172,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"资源环境约束下的新疆产业转型研究"(11XJY015);国家社会科学基金项目"基于水资源合理配置的新疆产业结构优化研究"(09XJL016)

摘　　要：根据新疆绿洲经济的特点及产业发展状况,构造了生态安全预警评价体系,利用熵权修正层次分析法求算指标权重,并对产业发展生态安全度进行景气评价与景兆预警,得出:2001～2010年新疆产业发展生态安全度均处于巨警状态,在各子系统中,除了资源利用子系统逐步由巨警转向重警状态外,其余呈巨警状态或逐步转向巨警状态;从未来5年的预警结果看,总的系统有转好趋向,4个子系统也不同程度逐年转好,但形势仍不容乐观,警度呈巨警或重警状态,表明新疆绿洲产业发展依旧面临严峻的生态环境压力,产业发展与资源环境很不协调,应加快转变经济发展方式,积极进行产业优化升级。According to the characteristics of the oasis economic and industrial development in Xinjiang,we construct an ecological alarm index system,and through the entropy weight correcting weight of AHP calculating the index weights,and evaluate prosperity and alarm aura the ecological effects of industrial development,the result is that 2001-2010 industry development in Xinjiang ecological environment are facing in a huge alarm state.In each subsystem,with the exception of subsystem resource utilization gradually shifts from giant alarm state to severe alarm state,the rest is huge alarm state or moving toward giant alarm state.From five years in the future of the prediction results,the total system tend to change for the better,the four subsystems better year by year,but the overall situation is not optimistic,warning degree will show the giant police or the heavy police state,show Xinjiang oasis industry development is still facing severe environmental pressures,industrial development and resource environment is not harmonious,we should accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development,actively carry out the optimization and upgrading of industry.

关 键 词：产业发展 生态安全 生态预警 新疆绿洲经济 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F205