武器装备论证多方案博弈分析方法  

Method on Game Analysis of Alternatives of Weapons and Equipment Demonstration

作　　者：贺平 罗小明 

机构地区：[1]装备学院研究生管理大队,北京101416 [2]装备学院航天指挥系,北京101416

出　　处：《装甲兵工程学院学报》2013年第2期20-24,共5页Journal of Academy of Armored Force Engineering

基　　金：军队科研计划项目

摘　　要：针对指标权重完全未知的非确定型武器装备论证多方案分析问题,提出一种基于博弈理论的多方案分析方法。该方法通过将多方案分析中的单个指标作为博弈的参与者,以综合评估所得的方案优先序与方案在某指标上取值的大小蕴含的方案优先序之间的相符度作为博弈方的收益,将指标的权重取值作为博弈方的策略,进而通过求解博弈的混合策略确定指标权重向量,最终得出多方案分析与评估结果。应用实例验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。Aiming at the alternatives analysis problem of non-deterministic weaponry demonstration with completely unknown index weights,an alternatives analysis method based on game theory is put forward.The method takes a single index of alternatives analysis as a game participant,makes the homology between the scheme priorities of comprehensive assessment and the scheme priority by index value as the game participant's income,treats the index weight value as a game strategy,and then determines the vector of index weight by solving the mixed strategy of game,and ultimately comes to the analysis and evaluation results of the alternatives analysis.The examples demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of the method.

关 键 词：武器装备论证 多方案分析 博弈 遗传算法 评估 

分 类 号：E911[军事]