月内重要天气过程与气候趋势预测系统及应用进展  

Monthly Anomaly and Weather Process Forecast System and Its Application

作　　者：陈伯民[1] 信飞[1] 沈愈[1] 李震坤[1] 杨雅薇[1] 史印山[2] 林纾 

机构地区：[1]上海市气候中心,上海200030 [2]河北省气候中心,石家庄770020 [3]甘肃省气候中心,兰州730020

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2013年第1期46-51,共6页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目"持续性异常信号判识和预报预测技术的集成应用"第5课题(2009BAC51B05);中国气象局现代气候业务发展改革试点工作"月内重要过程趋势预测业务系统"

摘　　要：对月内(延伸期)重要天气过程与气候趋势预测系统(MAPFS 1.1)的框架、预测方法与模块功能、推广应用情况进行了全面的介绍。该系统包含三种强降水过程预测方法模块和一种月降水趋势预测方法模块,目前已在华东区域等10个省市业务单位投入应用或业务试验,初步取得了较为理想的试验效果。上海、江苏、浙江气候中心等10家业务单位用低频图预报的2012年汛期月内强降水过程准确率平均达到67.7%,其中6家单位的准确率超过60%。This paper introduces the framework,feature and application of extended-range(Monthly) Anomaly and Process Forecast System(MAPFS 1.1) consisting of three precipitation process forecast modules(i.e.,the low-frequent map,anomaly similarity and 150d cycle method modules) as well as the EOF-iteration downscaling module for monthly precipitation anomaly.Up to now,MAPFS 1.1 has been used in operation or in provisional operation in the climate centers of ten provinces or cities in China.The results indicate that extended-range(10-30d) heavy rainfall prediction accuracy from ten centers during the rain season of 2012 is,on average,up to 67.7 %,and particularly that of six centers is larger than 60 %.

关 键 词：月内强降水过程 预测业务系统 应用 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]