强对流天气预报检验新方法在上海的应用尝试  

Applications of a New Verification Method for Severe Convection Forecasting and Nowcasting in Shanghai

作　　者：戴建华[1] 茅懋[1] 邵玲玲[1] 李佳[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海中心气象台,上海200030 [2]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2013年第3期40-45,共6页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006002);中国气象局业务建设项目"灾害天气短时临近预报预警业务系统(SWAN)版本升级建设";中国气象局创新团队"全国强对流预报专家团队"项目

摘　　要：为了弥补常规检验方法的不足,挖掘预报的潜在价值,基于强对流天气预报的特点、短临预报业务需求和效益评估用户调查,采用对比预报与实际的强对流天气目标之强度、面积、空间距离、形态和相似度等评价指标,建立包括格点型、站点型和概率型的强对流预报检验方法、预报检验指标调整与合成方法,制定基于用户需求和使用倾向的强对流短临检验指标和标准,尝试开发适合我国强对流预报预警发展的强对流短临预报新型检验业务产品,实现对强对流短临预报的综合检验和评价。介绍了这一新尝试的设计和相关算法,及其在上海的试验应用。To compensate for the disadvantages of the conventional verification methods and find the potential value of forecasts, a new verification method is developed for severe convection forecasting and nowcasting. This method is based on the characteristics of severe convective weather, the requirements of the very short-term forecasting and nowcasting operations, and performance evaluation of user surveys. In the approach of the method, forecasts for severe convection are compared to the observations aiming at their differences in intensity, area, distance, morphology and similarity. Several verification methods have been adopted for grid-based, site-based, and probabilistic forecasts. A forecast adjustment and integration method is also developed based on preference and tendency of users, and some verification indices and standards have been established. A series of operational verification products of this new method are developed for the national severe convection forecasting operations. This paper describes the design of this new method and its algorithms, as well as its application in Shanghai.

关 键 词：强对流 检验 目标对象检验法 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]