150天韵律方法月内过程预测系统简介及应用检验  

Introduction and Application Test of the 150 Days' Cycle Method in the Prediction System for Precipitation Processes within a Month

作　　者：林纾[1] 惠志红[2] 郭俊琴[1] 罗雪梅[2] 杨苏华[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北区域气候中心,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省气象信息与技术装备保障中心,兰州730020

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2013年第5期48-51,共4页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006038-5-1);国家自然科学基金(41175081)

摘　　要：给出150天韵律方法做延伸期预报的原理和检验办法,经检验2002—2012年间天气过程预测准确率定性评分为67.3分,空报率为5.9%,漏报率为26.8%。介绍了150天韵律方法月内过程预测系统框架,系统分为系统介绍、NC数据处理、数据调用、分析与计算、制作预报结论、评估数据管理、产品分发和系统设置八大功能块。该系统可计算相似系数、历史概括率以及历史过程预测的"正确、空报、漏报"情况,提高了该方法定量化应用程度。This paper presents the principle and testing method to the precipitation processes predicted by the 150 days' cycle.The precipitation processes predicted by the 150 days' cycle method from 2002 to 2012 were assessed qualitatively,and it presented an average score of 67.3,the vacancy forecast rate is 5.9% and the missing forecast rate is 26.8%.The framework of the prediction system for precipitation processes within a month was introduced.The system has eight major function parts,system introduction,NC data processing,data call,analysis and calculation,prediction conclusion making,assessment data management,production issue,and system settings.This system can calculate the similarity coefficiency,historical coverage rate and the historical evolution accuracy,vacancy or missing process.The quantitative application of the method was improved by the system.

关 键 词：150天韵律方法 预测系统 应用检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]