危机后的“效率市场假说”之争——经济学家如何反思及捍卫金融市场的内在稳定性  

Division Over the Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH):How Economists Rethink and Defend the Stability of the Financial Market after the Crisis

作　　者：赵准[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学人文学院经济学所

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2010年第2期138-153,共16页China Review of Political Economy

摘　　要：论文梳理和评析了"效率市场假说(Efficient Market Hypothesis,EMH)"的理论含义、政策含义、经验验证和预测功能,揭示了EMH及其相关模型在宏观经济调控及金融业微观实践中带来的危害,以及格林斯潘和斯科尔斯等相关人士对模型缺陷的反思,剖析了EMH所假设的金融市场的稳定过程,指出它所假设的市场稳定因素实际上并不存在,所谓"精明的投资者"实际上正是泡沫的"制造者"而非"戳破者",因此,金融市场出现危机是难免的。In this paper we review and comment the theoretical and policy implications,the empirical tests and prediction ability of Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH).After reviewing its defenders', such as Alan Greenspan and Myron Scholes,reconsiderations,we prove that how the EMH and its related models did great harms to macroeconomic regulations and financial industry.Analyzing the process by which EMH takes to stabilize the financial market,we conclude that the stabilizing factors that EMH assumes do not exist at all.And the so called 'intelligent investors' are actually the creators rather than breakers of the bubbles,and as a consequence the crises are inevitable in the financial markets.

关 键 词：效率市场假说 金融危机 金融市场的稳定性 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]