1990年以来中国宏观经济分析  

Analysis of Macroeconomy of China since 1990

作　　者：柳欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济研究所

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2003年第1期14-50,共37页China Review of Political Economy

摘　　要：本文使用了一种新的宏观经济分析方法,简而言之,这种新的理论认为国民经济统计中的变量均为货币量值的加总,它决定于特定的货币金融体系或者说是社会关系,而非新古典经济学所强调的技术或者生产函数。本文分为七部分,对包括经济中的政府、企业、商业银行、居民等部门的运行进行了分析,它们共同组成一个整体,从而可以看到经济运行的全貌。总的来说,经济运行决定于居民的资产选择和企业、商业银行等部门的行为特征,这表现为内生的货币供给下货币资金在整个经济中的流动以及企业资产值的变化。本文根据这种方法,对20世纪90年代以来我国的宏观经济波动和当前的宏观经济形势进行了重新解释和实证分析。The report is based on a new theory. The simplest statement of such a new theory is that all of the statistic variables of national income accounting aggregated by monetary values are not relevant to technology (or product function) but determined by social relations or specific monetary and financial system. Then we can draw the conclusion that the starting point and theory basis of the current macroeconomic analysis bear radically errors, which affects the economic fluctuation and current macroeconomic situation analysis in our country from 1990s. The report consists of seven parts. They are: a general introduction of a new macroeco- nomic model, analysis on firms' functioning, income distribution and effective demand, banking system, capital market, fiscal policy and economic growth and employment. Each part is independent while at the same time connected with each other by the inner condition. On the whole, the macroeconomics is based on the choice of households and the behavior of banks and firms. Thus, through the money creation of commercial banks, the money flow in the whole society and asset value of firms can be changed. Economy reaches to the equilibrium after the money and asset value fluctuation. The report tries to explain such a mechanism of transmission and makes an empirical test by China's data.

关 键 词：商业银行 资本存量 宏观经济分析 固定资产投资增长率 内生货币供给 企业 货币供应量 货币金融体系 资本市场 经济增长 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]