中国宏观经济分析理论框架的再表述:AD-AS模型及其政策含义  

Restating the Theoretical Framework for China's Macroeconomic Analysis:AD-AS Model and its Policy Implication

作　　者：郑超愚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2003年第2期62-76,共15页China Review of Political Economy

摘　　要：本文构造同时附加预期和需求的总供给函数通用形式以及货币主义性质的总需求函数,最终组成面向中国经济的总供给总需求模型。非正统的总供给总需求模型蕴涵仅货币政策有效而(缺乏货币政策适应的)财政政策无效的需求管理政策含义。本文考察非正统的总供给总需求模型的货币经济周期和动态调整,进而通过定位正向的总需求潜在总供给效应,揭示中国经济结构失衡态是逆周期运动的。在简要评论通货紧缩时期中国财政政策、货币政策和汇率政策实践经验的基础上,本文提出中国需求管理政策取向和政策组合的操作建议。This essay constructs the general form of AS function with both expectation and AD augmented,and the monetarist-style AD function,to comprise an AD-AS model for China's economy.The heterodox AD-AS model has the policy implication for demand management that only monetary policy is effective,while fiscal policy impotent (without monetary policy accommodating ).After the monetary business cycle and the dynamic equilibrium of the AD-AS model are investigated sequentially,its dynamic adjustment to money supply shock is demonstrated in phrase diagram.This essay identifies the positive effect of AD change on potential AS,and,therefore,reveals the con-cycle movement of structural unbalance in China's economy.Based on the briefly reviewing of the fiscal,monetary and exchange policy experiences during the deflation since 1998,this essay delivers some operational suggestions for the policy orientation and policy mix of China's demand management.

关 键 词：政策含义 总供给函数 潜在总供给 货币政策 宏观经济分析 理论框架 中国经济 货币供应 需求管理 总需求函数 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]