中国CO_2排放特征:基于因素分解模型的实证研究  

Empirical Study of Decomposition of CO_2 Emission Factors in China

作　　者：宁亚东[1] 张永红[1] 丁涛[1] 蔡靖雍[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学能源与动力学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第S2期9-14,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部回国留学人员科学研究资助专项"基于人口地理学的能源-经济-环境系统模型研究"

摘　　要：近年来,中国CO2排放问题已经成为世界关注的热点问题。要有效地抑制CO2排放量的快速增长,研究中国CO2排放量的影响因素尤为重要。本文计算了中国1980-2010年产业部门和民生部门的CO2排放量,基于Kaya恒等式基本原理,采用完全因素分解法分析研究中国产业部门和民生部门的CO2排放特征,探讨影响中国产业部门和民生部门CO2排放的主要因素。结果表明:经济的规模效应是影响中国产业部门CO2排放量增长的最主要因素;降低第二产业的比重和能源消费强度,CO2的减排效果远远高于降低第一、三产业,结构因素的减排效果要高于效率因素;民生部门的CO2排放量正处在快速增长阶段,经济因素(富裕度)是民生部门CO2排放量增加的主要因素;要想控制中国CO2排放量的快速增长,转变经济增长方式是重要途径,结构调整将成为中国未来减排的关键。China's CO2 emissions have been one of the hottest problems discussed in the world.It is of great importance to analyze China's CO2 emission factors to restrain the CO2 rapid growing.This paper calculated the CO2 emission of industry and livelihood sectors in China during 1981-2010.The expand decomposition model of CO2 emissions is set up by adopting factor-separating method based on the basic principle of Kaya identities.The results show that CO2 emissions of industry and livelihood sectors increase year after year,and the scale effect of GDP is the most important factor for affecting CO2 emissions of industry sector.Decreasing the specific gravity of secondary industry and energy intensity is more effective than primary industry and tertiary-industry.The emission reduction effect of structure factor is better than efficiency factor.For livelihood sector,CO2 emissions increase rapidly year after year,and the economic factor is the most important factor.In order to slow down the growth of CO2 emissions,it is an important way to change the economic growth mode and structure factor will become crucial factor.

关 键 词：能源消费 CO2排放 因素分解 产业结构 能源强度 

分 类 号：X701[环境科学与工程—环境工程]