碳减排评价指标的建立及应用研究  

Index Establishment and Application Research of Carbon Emission Reduction Assessment

作　　者：岳文婧[1] 郑红霞[1] 陈劭锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第S2期21-25,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项第四专题(编号:XDA05150401);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:kzcx2-yw-325)

摘　　要：全球第一大碳排放国和发展中国家的双重身份,使中国成为世界碳排放责任划分最大的争议焦点。《京都议定书》规定的第一承诺期(2008-2012)即将结束,如何评定这一阶段内中国在碳减排方面取得的成果,是目前研究的热点问题。本文基于IPAT的指数分解模型,提出衡量碳减排力度的两个全新指标,即广义技术进步下各年碳减排量和累计碳减排量。这组指标从减排而非排放责任的角度出发,以一种新的视角评定某一国家在一定阶段内的减排力度。文章选取部分国家对比分析了中国1990-2009年减排情况,得出主要结论:在这一时期,中国累计碳减排量达到1959.08百万t,占世界总累计减排量的22.82%,次于美国排名第二;同时期,中国创造了24956.3亿美元的GDP增量,占世界GDP增量的16.75%。中国在持续推动全球经济快速发展的同时,也肩负起了全球碳减排的责任和义务,做出了突出贡献。The dual identity of the biggest developing country and the largest producer of the world's carbon emissions,makes China the most controversial country in dividing responsibility for the world's carbon emissions reduction.The first commitment period of Kyoto Protocol(2008-2012) is about to the end.How to assess China's contribution to the world's carbon emissions reduction during this period has become a hot topic all over the world.Based on the IPAT index decomposition model,the paper introduces two new indexes,annual carbon emission reductions and cumulative carbon emission reductions(under the generalized technological progress).Those indexes can measure the carbon emission effort of a country at a certain stage from a new perspective.Using 20 years of data(1990-2009),the analysis shows that: with 22.82% of the world's carbon emissions reduction and 16.75% of the world's GDP increment,China has fully shouldered its responsibility for the world's carbon emission reduction in its rapid developing process.

关 键 词：IPAT指数分解模型 碳减排指标 各年碳减排量 累积碳减排量 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]